Carrier Global’s first quarter results were met with a positive market reaction, as revenue and adjusted earnings per share surpassed Wall Street expectations. Management attributed the solid performance to robust growth in commercial HVAC, particularly in data center orders, and a better-than-expected showing in residential and light commercial segments. CEO David Gitlin highlighted that global data center orders grew more than fivefold, and Carrier’s backlog now fully covers its $1.5 billion sales target for the segment this year. While residential HVAC faced ongoing challenges, healthy inventory levels and share gains in light commercial retail accounts provided some relief. The company also benefited from continued strength in aftermarket services, which Gitlin described as “double-digit growth for the sixth year in a row.”
Is now the time to buy CARR? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Carrier Global (CARR) Q1 CY2026 Highlights:
- Revenue: $5.34 billion vs analyst estimates of $5 billion (2.4% year-on-year growth, 6.8% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.57 vs analyst estimates of $0.51 (12.1% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $909 million vs analyst estimates of $866.4 million (17% margin, 4.9% beat)
- Management reiterated its full-year Adjusted EPS guidance of $2.80 at the midpoint
- Operating Margin: 4.8%, down from 12.1% in the same quarter last year
- Organic Revenue fell 1% year on year (beat)
- Market Capitalization: $56.4 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Carrier Global’s Q1 Earnings Call
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Jeffrey Sprague (Vertical Research): Asked about the impact of increased pricing to offset tariffs and inflation, and how margin pressure is being managed. CFO Patrick Goris clarified that most price increases are tariff-driven and will be margin-neutral by year-end.
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Scott Davis (Melius Research): Inquired about the outlook for China’s residential market and whether a bottom has been reached. CEO David Gitlin responded that recovery is uncertain, with ongoing challenges in housing, but highlighted pockets of strength in commercial segments like data centers.
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Joseph Ritchie (Goldman Sachs): Sought details on Carrier’s ability to pass on price increases to customers amid tariff uncertainty. CEO Gitlin acknowledged distributor concerns, but expressed confidence in maintaining share due to product differentiation and ongoing investment.
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Andrew Kaplowitz (Citigroup): Requested insight into European heat pump trends and margin recovery in the region. Gitlin noted strong demand, especially in Germany, and described recent pricing actions and promotional adjustments to support future margin improvement.
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Christopher Snyder (Morgan Stanley): Asked how Carrier distinguishes true end-market demand from channel inventory build, especially ahead of price increases. Gitlin explained that improved field inventory tracking and close distributor relationships provide better visibility and supply-demand alignment.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will track (1) the pace of data center cooling product adoption and order conversion, (2) Carrier’s ability to sustain double-digit aftermarket growth and margin recovery amid ongoing cost pressures, and (3) the impact of new tariffs and associated pricing actions on both top-line growth and profitability. Additionally, progress in European heat pump adoption and stabilization in China’s residential market will be key markers for execution.
Carrier Global currently trades at $68.38, up from $61.74 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
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