Digital payments platform PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) fell short of the markets revenue expectations in Q4 CY2025 as sales rose 3.7% year on year to $8.68 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.23 per share was 4.5% below analysts’ consensus estimates.

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StockStory’s Take

PayPal’s fourth quarter was marked by underperformance relative to Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations, with management citing execution issues in its core branded checkout business as a primary challenge. Outgoing CEO Alex Chriss and interim CEO Jamie Miller acknowledged that operational delays and slower-than-expected merchant adoption hampered results. Miller stated, “We have not moved fast enough or with the level of focus required, and we are taking immediate steps to address that reality.” In particular, weaknesses in U.S. retail, international markets like Germany, and high-growth verticals such as travel and crypto contributed to the quarter’s softer performance.

Looking ahead, management’s guidance emphasizes significant investments in merchant experience, biometric authentication, and consumer engagement to restore momentum in branded checkout. The forthcoming appointment of Enrique Lores as CEO is seen as a move to inject greater operational discipline and accelerate strategic execution. Miller explained that Lores’s “track record of relentless, disciplined execution in performance improvement in complex business environments makes him ideally suited for this challenge.” The company signaled that most of the benefits from these initiatives will be realized gradually, with a focus on restoring growth in its branded business and driving deeper user engagement, while remaining cautious about the pace of recovery.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management attributed the fourth quarter’s results to continued strength in Venmo and value-added services, but ongoing struggles in branded checkout and tough international conditions weighed on performance.

• CEO transition announced: PayPal named Enrique Lores, formerly Board Chair, as its next CEO effective March, aiming to accelerate execution and improve focus on strategic priorities. Outgoing CEO Alex Chriss was thanked for his contributions, but management openly admitted execution shortcomings as a reason for the leadership change.
• Venmo and Enterprise Payments momentum: Venmo revenue rose approximately 20% for the year, driven by a shift from peer-to-peer payments to monetized commerce and strong growth in debit card usage. The Enterprise Payments division delivered seven consecutive quarters of profitable growth, with double-digit volume growth in the fourth quarter.
• Branded checkout underperformed: Online branded checkout volume grew only 1% on a currency-neutral basis, with management citing U.S. retail softness, international headwinds (especially in Germany), and a slowdown in high-growth verticals as major factors. Operational and deployment issues further slowed merchant adoption of new features.
• Operational changes to drive adoption: Management realigned teams to focus on high-impact merchants, prioritized integrating biometric authentication, and emphasized the importance of upstream presentment—ensuring PayPal is prominently displayed and incentivized at checkout.
• New product and loyalty initiatives launched: The company began rolling out PayPal Plus, a new rewards program, and is launching a redesigned mobile app aimed at increasing app engagement and loyalty. Early data from the U.K. launch of PayPal Plus showed increased transaction volumes among enrolled users.

Drivers of Future Performance

Management’s outlook for the coming year is shaped by targeted investments in merchant integration, consumer biometrics, and loyalty programs, with a cautious view on branded checkout recovery.

• Significant growth investments: PayPal plans to allocate substantial resources to improve branded checkout, biometric authentication, and rewards programs. Management expects these investments to create a near-term headwind for transaction margins and earnings as benefits are realized over a longer time horizon.
• Focus on high-impact merchants: The strategy now centers on accelerating adoption and deeper integration with top merchants, representing about 25% of branded checkout volume. Dedicated teams will implement combined experience and biometric upgrades to drive higher conversion rates and merchant engagement.
• Diversification of growth levers: Management highlighted that while branded checkout faces headwinds, other areas like Venmo, Enterprise Payments, and buy now, pay later (BNPL) are expected to offset some pressure. The company is also investing in agentic commerce—tools that enable AI-powered shopping—though meaningful contributions from these initiatives are expected further out.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will monitor (1) the pace at which PayPal’s merchant partners adopt new checkout experiences and biometric-enabled flows, (2) the effectiveness of loyalty and rewards programs such as PayPal Plus in driving user engagement and repeat usage, and (3) whether growth in Venmo, Enterprise Payments, and buy now, pay later can offset continued branded checkout softness. Execution against these operational milestones will be pivotal for PayPal’s turnaround efforts.

PayPal currently trades at $42.14, down from $52.51 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

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