Multiple Chronic Conditions a Key Driver of Unsustainable Spending Growth

New national and state data released today by the Partnership to Fight Chronic Disease (PFCD) projects that chronic disease is on pace to cost the United States as much as $47 trillion between 2024 and 2039, including $2.2 trillion annually in medical costs and nearly $900 billion each year in lost productivity by 2039. The analysis, conducted by GlobalData, highlights a stark reality: 5% of people account for nearly 50% of total health care spending, driven largely by the growth of patients living with three or more chronic conditions. By 2039, the combined per-person medical and productivity cost of chronic disease could reach $12,900 per U.S. resident if meaningful action is not taken.

However, the data also points to a powerful opportunity. Better prevention, earlier intervention, and improved management of chronic disease, especially obesity, could prevent 150 million new chronic disease cases, save 13.5 million lives, and avoid $7 trillion in costs nationally between 2024 and 2039. Even modest behavioral changes and improvements in care delivery could save $125 billion per year, while treatment breakthroughs and more optimistic prevention scenarios could generate $465 billion in annual savings.

“These findings make clear that chronic disease, and especially the accumulation of multiple chronic conditions, is the main driver of rising health care spending in the United States,” said PFCD Chair Ken Thorpe. “The path to better overall health outcomes, sustainability and productivity runs through prevention, innovation and better coordination of care, not access restrictions that leave patients sicker and costs higher.”

Please visit www.fightchronicdisease.org/pfcd-in-the-states for the full set of national and state-level fact sheets and associated methodology.

The Partnership to Fight Chronic Disease (PFCD) is an internationally-recognized organization of patients, providers, community organizations, business and labor groups, and health policy experts committed to raising awareness of the number one cause of death, disability, and rising health care costs: chronic disease.

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