What Happened?
A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after crude oil pushed back above $100 a barrel, with Brent near $111 and WTI close to $108.
The move followed fresh comments from President Trump that "the Clock is Ticking" for Iran, a drone attack on the UAE's Barakah nuclear plant over the weekend, and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally carries about 20% of the world's oil. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) gained roughly 2.4%, with Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips leading.
Supply data added to the squeeze: U.S. crude inventories fell 4.3 million barrels in early May, dropping below the five-year average, while natural gas futures jumped. The risk for investors remained symmetrical as any de-escalation could reverse the move just as quickly.
The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks.
Among others, the following stocks were impacted:
- Oilfield Services company TechnipFMC (NYSE: FTI) jumped 2.6%. Is now the time to buy TechnipFMC? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
- Mixed or Offshore Upstream E&P company Tidewater (NYSE: TDW) jumped 2.8%. Is now the time to buy Tidewater? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
Zooming In On Tidewater (TDW)
Tidewater’s shares are very volatile and have had 20 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 12 days ago when the stock dropped 4.3% after crude oil prices fell sharply as President Trump paused the Strait of Hormuz military escort and cited progress on a U.S.–Iran peace deal.
Oil and gas company profits move almost directly with the price of oil: when oil falls, revenue per barrel falls, and profit margins compress. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil chokepoint: approximately 20% of global oil supply passes through it daily. When the strait is at risk from conflict, oil carries a geopolitical risk premium as extra price built in to reflect supply uncertainty.
When that risk eases, the premium disappears and prices return toward the underlying supply-and-demand level. OPEC+, the group of major oil-producing countries, separately announced 188,000 barrels per day of additional supply starting June 2026, which added to the downward price pressure independent of the peace deal.
Tidewater is up 63.3% since the beginning of the year, and at $85.31 per share, it is trading close to its 52-week high of $91.12 from April 2026. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Tidewater’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $5,966.
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