Vacation ownership company Marriott Vacations (NYSE: VAC) will be reporting results this Wednesday after market close. Here’s what to expect.

Marriott Vacations missed analysts’ revenue expectations last quarter, reporting revenues of $1.26 billion, down 3.2% year on year. It was a softer quarter for the company, with a significant miss of analysts’ revenue estimates and a significant miss of analysts’ adjusted operating income estimates.

Is Marriott Vacations a buy or sell going into earnings? Read our full analysis here, it’s free for active Edge members.

This quarter, the market is expecting Marriott Vacations’s revenue to decline 2.3% year on year, a reversal from the 11.1% increase it recorded in the same quarter last year.

Analysts covering the company have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days, suggesting they anticipate the business to stay the course heading into earnings. Marriott Vacations has missed Wall Street’s revenue estimates multiple times over the last two years.

Looking at Marriott Vacations’s peers in the consumer discretionary - travel and vacation providers segment, some have already reported their Q4 results, giving us a hint as to what we can expect. Frontier posted flat year-on-year revenue, beating analysts’ expectations by 2.3%, and Hilton reported revenues up 10.9%, topping estimates by 3.3%. Frontier traded down 12% following the results while Hilton’s stock price was unchanged.

Read our full analysis of Frontier’s results here and Hilton’s results here.

The outlook for 2025 remains clouded by potential trade policy changes and corporate tax discussions, which could impact business confidence and growth. While some of the consumer discretionary - travel and vacation providers stocks have shown solid performance in this choppy environment, the group has generally underperformed, with share prices down 2.9% on average over the last month. Marriott Vacations is down 2.6% during the same time and is heading into earnings with an average analyst price target of $63 (compared to the current share price of $55.04).

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