The stocks in this article have caught Wall Street’s attention in a big way, with price targets implying returns above 20%. But investors should take these forecasts with a grain of salt because analysts typically say nice things about companies so their firms can win business in other product lines like M&A advisory.

At StockStory, we look beyond the headlines with our independent analysis to determine whether these bullish calls are justified. That said, here are three stocks where Wall Street may be overlooking some important risks and some alternatives with better fundamentals.

Peloton (PTON)

Consensus Price Target: $10.43 (75% implied return)

Started as a Kickstarter campaign, Peloton (NASDAQ: PTON) is a fitness technology company known for its at-home exercise equipment and interactive online workout classes.

Why Do We Pass on PTON?

1. Demand for its offerings was relatively low as its number of connected fitness subscribers has underwhelmed
2. Sales over the last five years were less profitable as its earnings per share fell by 16.5% annually while its revenue was flat
3. Low free cash flow margin of 7.6% for the last two years gives it little breathing room, constraining its ability to self-fund growth or return capital to shareholders

At $5.96 per share, Peloton trades at 39.5x forward P/E. To fully understand why you should be careful with PTON, check out our full research report (it’s free).

First Advantage (FA)

Consensus Price Target: $17.57 (24.6% implied return)

Processing approximately 100 million background checks annually across more than 200 countries and territories, First Advantage (NASDAQ: FA) provides employment background screening, identity verification, and compliance solutions to help companies manage hiring risks.

Why Does FA Worry Us?

1. Incremental sales over the last two years were much less profitable as its earnings per share fell by 4.6% annually while its revenue grew
2. 15.1 percentage point decline in its free cash flow margin over the last five years reflects the company’s increased investments to defend its market position
3. Below-average returns on capital indicate management struggled to find compelling investment opportunities, and its shrinking returns suggest its past profit sources are losing steam

First Advantage is trading at $14.10 per share, or 12.5x forward P/E. Read our free research report to see why you should think twice about including FA in your portfolio.

Forestar Group (FOR)

Consensus Price Target: $32.50 (32.7% implied return)

As a majority-owned subsidiary of homebuilding giant D.R. Horton, Forestar Group (NYSE: FOR) develops and sells finished residential lots to homebuilders, focusing primarily on land acquisition and development for single-family homes.

Why Are We Out on FOR?

1. Number of lots sold averaged -4.2% growth over the past two years and imply healthy demand for its products
2. Negative free cash flow raises questions about the return timeline for its investments
3. Shrinking returns on capital from an already weak position reveal that neither previous nor ongoing investments are yielding the desired results

Forestar Group’s stock price of $24.50 implies a valuation ratio of 8.1x forward P/E. Check out our free in-depth research report to learn more about why FOR doesn’t pass our bar.

Stocks We Like More

If your portfolio success hinges on just 4 stocks, your wealth is built on fragile ground. You have a small window to secure high-quality assets before the market widens and these prices disappear.

Don’t wait for the next volatility shock. Check out our Top 6 Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 244% over the last five years (as of June 30, 2025).

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,326% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Tecnoglass (+1,754% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.