After hitting an all-time high (ATH) on June 17, shares of CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD) bounced back to a prior level of support. This aligns with a broad consolidation in CRWD stock in a range between approximately $448 and $492.
The bulls say CRWD stock is ready for a breakout. But the bears raise valid concerns about the stock’s valuation in a red-hot sector.
However, those concerns are fading into the background after the United States launched a series of missiles into Iran on June 21. This is prompting analysts to consider how Iran might retaliate.
One probable method is a cyberattack. A cyberattack could boost cybersecurity stocks, sending CRWD stock much higher in the short term.
Iran Poses a Significant Cyberthreat to U.S. Infrastructure
Russia and China may be considered to have more sophisticated abilities to conduct cyberattacks. But what Iran may lack in sophistication, they make up for in persistence.
Iran controls several advanced persistent threat (APT) groups like APT33 (Elfin), APT34 (OilRig) and MuddyWater. Over the last 10 to 15 years, these groups have launched a series of attacks targeting U.S. government, financial services, energy, and healthcare infrastructure.
Let Historical Precedent Guide Your Short-Term Decisions
Sadly, there is historical precedent for how stocks perform after major cyberattacks. A relevant example occurred in 2019 after the U.S. action that killed the Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.
In the aftermath of that event, several cybersecurity stocks, including CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: PANW), climbed 6% and 12% in the span of 10 trading days. However, both stocks gave up those gains as investors took profit once they perceived the immediate threat was over.
In the last five years, investors have had at least two other case studies for how CRWD stock behaved in the weeks and months after a major attack. For example, following the SolarWinds breach in December 2020, the stock jumped 18% in the following two weeks. But the stock dropped over 10% in April 2021 as part of a greater pullback in the technology sector.
Another example came at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war. At that time, CRWD stock climbed 20% in approximately two weeks. However, once the initial panic subsided, it dropped about 8%.
What could be different this time is that the broader market, and technology stocks in particular, could get revalued higher if Congress passes the Trump administration’s budget bill.
Nevertheless, the takeaway is that this tailwind may be strong. But any sharp move higher may be followed by an equally strong pullback.
CrowdStrike’s Underlying Fundamentals Point to a Breakout
CrowdStrike’s Falcon platform stands to benefit from long-term structural tailwinds that will be in place for longer than the conflict with Iran. That's because cybersecurity is becoming an essential and growing line item in public and private sector company budgets.
CrowdStrike’s underlying fundamentals remain strong and supportive of a breakout. In its most recent earnings report, CrowdStrike delivered year-over-year revenue growth of 33%, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassing $3.65 billion.
The company also continues to expand margins, with non-GAAP operating income growing faster than revenue. That’s a sign that CrowdStrike's business model has operating leverage.
Institutional buying is also increasing. As of June 2025, hedge fund ownership in CRWD remains elevated, and analysts continue to raise price targets in response to both company execution and the elevated threat landscape. This means that long-term investors should view any pullback as a buying opportunity.
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