71% of Canadian and 43% of Mexican Consumers Intend to Buy Fewer U.S. Grocery Products in 2025, dunnhumby Study Reveals

 25% of Canadians and Latin Americans who are buying less from the U.S. this year, said that this would become permanent behavior in the future

Seventy-one percent of Canadian and 43% of Mexican consumers report they will buy fewer U.S. grocery products in 2025 according to the tenth wave of the dunnhumby Consumer Trends Tracker (CTT) released today. Canada and Mexico are the two largest agricultural trading partners of the U.S. According to the USDA, in 2024 the U.S. exported 33% of its agricultural products to Canada and Mexico, totaling over $58 billion out of $176 billion of total U.S. agricultural exports. Imports from these countries were 42%, amounting to $90 billion out of $213 billion in total U.S. agricultural imports, according to the USDA.

The quarterly study – now in its third year – also found that 84% of Canadians, 79% of Brazilians, 78% of Chileans, 77% of Mexicans, and 76% of Colombians, cited the tariffs imposed by the U.S. as the most important factor of why they intend to buy fewer grocery products from the U.S. The political climate between the U.S. and the respondents’ country was the second most cited reason for the pullback.

“Canadians and Latin Americans are shifting their shopping behavior to spend their money where their values align. That has implications for all brands and retailers as they need to truly understand their customers to make sure they are living up to the standards expected of them,” said Matt O’Grady, President of the Americas, dunnhumby.

Key findings from the study:

• U.S. retail mass and chain stores in Canada had on average, a 3% drop in sales penetration compared to the ninth wave of this study in December 2024. This drop reflects a loss of approximately 500,000 Canadian households. National Canadian chains in discount and mass formats gained 3% during this period.
• Nearly 25% of Canadians and Latin Americans who are buying less from the U.S. this year, also said that this would become permanent behavior in the future. For Canada this equates to $15 to $20 billion of annual grocery purchasing power.
• While consumers in Canada and Latin America aim their protectionist behavior at the U.S., American shoppers exhibit little interest in retaliating against tariffs levied by countries in the Americas. Instead, 21% of U.S. consumers plan to reduce their purchases from China, although the U.S. imports less than 5% of its food supply from China.
• Buying from home sentiment is up in most countries, but least of all in the U.S. 63% of Canadians, 60% of Brazilians, 59% of Colombians, 54% of Mexicans, and 44% of Chileans said they intend to buy more from their own countries. Only 30% of Americans agreed with buying more from their own country.
• Channel penetration of discount and dollar channels shifted the most for Canadians (up 3% to 75%) and for U.S. (up 4% to 57%) consumers in this wave. U.S. shoppers are more likely exploring discount and dollar stores due to concerns about finances, but significant sales shifts to these channels have not occurred yet.

“Although consumers, retailers, and brands are navigating uncertain times, there are concrete steps all can take in the midst of this disruption. For consumers that may mean rapidly changing their behaviors so they protect their wallets, but for retailers and brands it means they should be turning to data insights to determine which strategic actions they need to take to stay ahead,” said “O’Grady.

Methodology

dunnhumby interviewed 8,500 grocery shoppers across Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Chile, and the U.S. The online interviews for Wave 10 took place in April 2025. Approximately 1,000 to 2,000 individuals were interviewed in each of the six countries for the current wave of the study.

The CTT study is designed to uncover shopper needs, perceptions, and behavior over time, and to complement dunnhumby’s Retailer Preference Index. The latest CTT study is available for download on Thursday, May 29, 2025. Additional data will be shared today at 11 am Central during the webinar: “Grocery Shoppers on the Edge: Navigating the New Economic Reality in the Americas.”

Registration is available online here.

About dunnhumby

dunnhumby is the global leader in Customer Data Science, empowering businesses everywhere to compete and thrive in the modern data-driven economy. We always put the Customer First. Our mission: to enable businesses to grow and reimagine themselves by becoming advocates and champions for their Customers.

With deep heritage and expertise in retail — one of the world's most competitive markets, with a deluge of multi-dimensional data — dunnhumby today enables businesses all over the world, across industries, to be Customer First.

The dunnhumby Customer Data Science Platform is our unique mix of technology, software and consulting enabling businesses to increase revenue and profits by delivering exceptional experiences for their Customers – in-store, offline and online. dunnhumby employs over 2,500 experts in offices throughout Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas working for transformative, iconic brands such as Tesco, Coca-Cola, Meijer, Procter & Gamble, Raley's, and L'Oréal. Learn more at www.dunnhumby.com.

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