In a week filled with giant news surprises, I find myself once again surprised that former President Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick wasn’t more surprising.
In the end, the bread crumbs were real, not some reality-show head fake, as Trump chose 39-year-old Republican Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio to be his running mate. The young senator, elected from his home state in 2022, is a writer, a father and a Marine. He is simultaneously a Washington newcomer and a veteran of elite political circles for those who have a long enough memory.
Vance made his name first by writing the huge bestseller "Hillbilly Elegy" in 2016, a moving memoir of his working-class upbringing and Appalachian pedigree that was made into a movie starring Glenn Close in 2020.
The book became a sort of unofficial guide to understanding Trump voters in the run-up to 2016. After Trump won, Vance became a sought-after Trump-voter-translator in media and academic worlds, making it a mission to bring concerns of Appalachian working-class voters to the ruling class.
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His ability to understand White working-class Americans, paired with an Ivy League education, made him a great fit for the commentariat and he thrived in it. He was also sufficiently critical of Trump then to make him palatable to those audiences, delivering some blistering soundbites that will come back to haunt the ticket.
But his ability to straddle two worlds is also what makes this pick a missed opportunity for Trump. Vance brings to the ticket what Trump already had— working-class Rust Belt appeal paired with an ability to perform well in and understand elite media environments.
The former president may like Vance for those qualities, but he doesn’t need Vance for them because he already has them. I’d wager he likes Vance even more because the Ohio Republican had the accolades of the elites and spurned them in his populist conversion to a Trump ally.
But is that a recipe for electoral success?
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Trump had the opportunity to use this pick to reach out to fence-sitting double-haters, who may have softened into double-dislikers or even persuadable voters after Biden’s terrible debate performance.
A pick with a lighter rhetorical touch and a heavier resume, like Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, might have done that. A pick like Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, would have brought a popular figure with executive experience and a track record of winning suburban votes in a purple state where Biden’s weakness has made Trump newly competitive.
For his part, Vance struggled in his first-ever (and to be fair, very ambitious!) race for office when compared to other Republicans, running 6-10 points behind others on the ticket.
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Nonetheless, he beat a formidable Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan by six points, and a man who had burst onto the Washington scene as a literary figure years before returned to Washington again in a different form.
Today, a younger, more populist figure potentially becomes a heartbeat away from the presidency. He also becomes the front-runner for the 2028 GOP presidential nomination should Trump win in 2024 -- as seems increasingly likely.
So, is this pick a play for a policy legacy?
History tells me Trump doesn’t care about the details of policy, but he likely cares enough about a general spirit of America-First-ism and economic populism, particularly on trade, that it was worth it to him to boost someone who would not risk a reversion of the GOP to its more establishment, free-market form in four years. Perhaps Vance, the V.P. pick, will take on a traditional attack-dog role, signaling that Trump’s more restrained stance of the last month is here to stay.
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Vance is undoubtedly smart and impressive, as his life’s arc attests. He served his country honorably as a Marine, joining in the post-9/11 era. He will be the only veteran on either ticket and brings special knowledge of that community.
He is arguably the best public speaker, when it comes to policy specifics, of any of the four people on either of the major tickets.
His inspiring life story has been introduced to many an American via a best-selling book and a Ron Howard film. You can’t underestimate the import of a pop-cultural connection to Trump or to everyday voters, who will know him as the "Hillbilly Elegy" guy first and then will get to know him as Trump’s running mate. Indeed, a couple of my non-political friends immediately texted me after seeing his name in news alerts to clarify if this was the guy from the Glenn Close movie and book they read a couple of years ago.
It would not have been my strategy, but Trump's strategy rarely is.
So, I guess maybe the surprise is, by the end of writing this, I’m open to being surprised.
