Oshkosh’s first quarter results fell below Wall Street’s expectations, with revenue and non-GAAP profit both missing consensus estimates. Management attributed the underperformance primarily to softer market conditions in the Access equipment segment, where North American sales declined, and to higher operating expenses. CEO John Pfeifer noted that pricing power and improved operations in Vocational vehicles partially offset these challenges, but persistent headwinds in Access weighed on overall results. On the call, executives highlighted “solid progress” in ramping up Defense segment production, but expressed caution over the impact of recently announced tariffs on key components and supply chain costs.
Is now the time to buy OSK? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
Oshkosh (OSK) Q1 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $2.31 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.42 billion (9.1% year-on-year decline, 4.5% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.92 vs analyst expectations of $2.04 (5.8% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $245.4 million vs analyst estimates of $249.9 million (10.6% margin, 1.8% miss)
- Operating Margin: 7.6%, down from 10.2% in the same quarter last year
- Backlog: $14.55 billion at quarter end, down 11% year on year
- Market Capitalization: $7.12 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions Oshkosh’s Q1 Earnings Call
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Stephen Volkmann (Jefferies) asked whether Oshkosh could offset new tariff costs through pricing, as it had in past cycles. CEO John Pfeifer explained their approach is to minimize passing costs to customers and focus on supply chain mitigation, noting the current demand environment is less robust than during previous inflationary periods.
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Mig Dobre (Baird) pressed for clarity on which countries and components are most exposed to tariffs. CFO Matt Field clarified that the Access segment is most affected due to its global supply chain, particularly from China, while Vocational and Defense are more U.S.-centric.
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Jamie Cook (Truist) questioned how much of the tariff impact and mitigation would fall on the Access segment. Field confirmed that most direct tariff costs would affect Access, with cost-saving efforts spread more broadly across the company.
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Chad Dillard (Bernstein) inquired about the timing and composition of mitigation actions. Field said most impact and mitigation would occur in the second half of the year, with a mix of cost controls and price adjustments, while Pfeifer stressed ongoing supply chain reorganization as a longer-term solution.
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Kyle Menges (Citi) asked about weaknesses in telehandler sales and the impact of losing a major contract. Pfeifer acknowledged some impact but emphasized that Oshkosh’s market share in telehandlers continues to grow and that Q1 is not indicative of full-year segment health.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, our team will be watching (1) the effectiveness of Oshkosh’s tariff mitigation measures and whether cost reductions offset expected earnings headwinds, (2) the pace at which NGDV production ramps to full rate for the U.S. Postal Service, and (3) trends in Access equipment demand, especially as private construction markets remain sluggish. The ability to sustain Vocational segment momentum and manage evolving supply chain risks will also be important markers.
Oshkosh currently trades at $110.54, up from $88.34 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).
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